Iraq: Between the US withdrawal and the security vacuum: Is peace imminent or is there a looming storm?
Asran Al-Rawi Egypt 🇪🇬
In a move described by the Pentagon as “well thought out,” the United States announced a reduction in its forces in Iraq, stressing that the decision does not represent a random withdrawal, but rather reflects what it described as a “shared success” in the war against terrorism, while pledging to continue coordination with Baghdad to ensure a “responsible” transition to the next phase. But behind these diplomatic phrases, the question remains: Are we facing a new page of stability or the beginning of a hot storm sweeping the Iraqi scene?
Since 2003, Iraq has been living within the American sphere of influence. The forms change and the names differ, but the result is the same: a military presence that constantly raises internal controversy and strategic interests that Washington does not hide today. When America says it is reducing its military presence, this decision cannot be read in isolation from a set of political, security, and economic data.
First, it does not seem that the United States really wants to abandon Iraq. The most fortified military bases, especially in the Kurdistan region, remain protected and ready for any emergency. The reduction of forces may be merely a repositioning to relieve popular and political pressure, especially with the escalation of calls for the departure of foreign forces.
Secondly, this partial withdrawal may be a pressure card on the Iraqi government to highlight that Iraq's security is linked to the partnership with Washington. The lighter the American presence, the greater the possibility of escalating internal tensions or the return of terrorist threats, which places Baghdad in a position that requires continuous cooperation with the Americans.
Third, it is not unlikely that this step is part of a broader American strategy in the region, as Washington shifts from direct military engagement to unconventional warfare, drones, special operations, and support for local allies. This approach gives it the ability to survive and influence without incurring high military or political costs.
On the other hand, there are those who believe that this step may open the door to a new internal conflict, as a partial withdrawal or redeployment may create a vacuum that other regional powers seek to fill, returning Iraq to the arena of fierce competition between Washington, Tehran, and Ankara.
So, reducing US forces in Iraq is not necessarily a prelude to peace, nor a declaration of the end of an era. Rather, it may be the beginning of a new chapter in the conflict over the land of the two rivers. The ball is now in Baghdad’s court: either it invests this moment to formulate a true sovereignty equation that preserves its national interests, or this step turns into a new spark that re-ignites the storm in a country that has not yet emerged from its accumulated crises.
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